Asteroid Impact Courtesy NASA
I’m a big geek about a lot of things but astronomy has always been close to the top of the list. So while looking for an excuse to break out the telescope and see something new I decided to look up the Near Earth Object Program and see if there were any known objects that might be visible anytime soon. What I found was NASA’a list of known objects with earth crossing orbits giving them an at least marginal chance of impacting us. From there the data geek kicked in and here is what I’ve found:
All numbers are approximate.
- There are 300 objects with a chance of hitting us (that we know about).
- There are 46 that could hit us in the next 10 years.
- Of those that might hit us between now and 2010 all are 0 (zero) on the Tornio Scale (the likelihood of “consequences” if an impact occurs, lower is better).
- The largest asteroid with a chance of impacting us is in 2014 (named 2008 VS4) and has a diameter of 1.2 kilometers and has a velocity of 14.05km/sec (31,428 miles per hour). Actual probability of this one hitting us is 1 in 384,615,000).
According to the Spaceguard Survey, in the case of 75% of the asteroids 1 km and larger, individual chances of dying in the event of an impact are about 1-in-720,000. About the same chance as dying from a fireworks accident or amusement park ride.
By way of comparison, the Tunguska incident in Siberia in 1908 the object was probably between 20-100 metres (65-325 feet) across and the Barringer Meteor Crater in Arizona was caused by something about 30 meters in diameter. Then of course there is the famous dinosaur killing asteroid that was about 10,000 meters (10km) wide.
For now we’re pretty safe but new objects are being discovered all the time so keep your eyes on JPL and on the sky!
By the way, the object most likely to hit us is 2006 JY26 with a 1 in 172 chance of causing a bad day starting sometime in 2073, but at a paltry .007 meters in diameter, I would’t sweat it.
Have a nice day!
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